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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But this year's race is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still