Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
