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PHEVs emit nearly 5x more global warming emissions than official data indicate, as per a recent analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Official and Real-World Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs emit only 19% lower CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel vehicles, according to analysis conducted by a advocacy organization. This contrasts sharply with laboratory estimates, which suggested a 75% decrease in emissions.

Analysts studied data from in-vehicle energy use monitors of eight hundred thousand vehicles sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official figures, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Actual CO2 output are rising, while official figures are falling,” said a lead researcher participating in the report. “This discrepancy is widening and poses a significant problem. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as heavily as petrol cars.”

Primary Reasons Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed most of the gap to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of miles driven in electric power compared to overall mileage. They determined that only 27% of driving was done in electric mode, whereas lab assumptions assumed over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in electric mode, pollution levels were well above lab estimates. This occurred because electric motors were not strong sufficient to function alone, leading to combustion motors using gasoline for nearly a third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

According to estimates, the underestimation of PHEV CO2 output allowed four large carmaker groups to escape more than €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs could pay approximately €500 extra per year in operating costs than would be estimated under lab conditions.

“The bold statements that manufacturers like to make about their plug-in hybrid cars are obviously way off the mark,” commented a automotive analyst. “Consumers are being misled into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and cutting costs. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard gas and diesel cars in terms of fuel use, CO₂ production, and operating costs.”

Policy Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid cars have lately been drawn again into policy discussions as automakers have lobbied the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A proposed ban on sales of new combustion engine vehicles in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car sector and resistance from member states with significant automotive industries.

Some high-level officials have proposed PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” solution to include in the regulation.

An independent energy economics expert, who was not involved with the study, described the analysis a “very useful addition” after years in which segments of the car sector claimed there was too little data to accurately evaluate real-world CO2 output.

“The results demonstrate, without question, that the gap between lab and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ emissions is significantly greater than for petrol or diesel vehicles,” they stated. “Any regulatory changes regarding PHEVs should be implemented with extreme caution and considering that evidence.”